Alarm Bells on the Power Exchange: Are We Heading for Record Prices in 2027?

Anyone looking at forward power markets these days is in for a surprise. Annual contracts for 2027 have recently climbed to a new record level on the EEX exchange, and market watchers are openly talking about an alarming trend. That's a good reason for me to take a closer look: what's driving this price surge, and what does it mean for industry and society? What's happening right now The numbers show a clear acceleration. Prices for the nearest delivery quarters are rising noticeably faster than contracts further out on the horizon: the fourth quarter of 2026 is trading around 22 percent above the same quarter a year earlier, the first quarter of 2027 around 17 percent higher, and the second quarter of 2027 still roughly 12 percent higher. The annual contracts show the same trend, though more muted: 2027 is up around 12 percent, 2028 around 6 percent, and 2029 only about 3 percent. In other words, the market is pricing in a considerably tighter environment mainly for the near future — expectations only ease again with some distance in time. Three factors are driving this development: First, fuel and CO₂ costs. Gas remains expensive given an uncertain LNG supply situation, and higher CO₂ prices are further increasing the cost of fossil-fuel power generation. Both feed directly into the exchange price. Second, the so-called "Dunkelflaute" — a stretch of low wind and low sun. When wind and solar output collapse at the same time while demand stays high, spot-market prices can spike to a multiple of their usual level within a single hour. We've already seen this repeatedly over the past winters, with peak values well above 900 euros per megawatt-hour in individual hours. The more often such situations recur, the more they also shape expectations on the forward market. Third, the structure of the power plant fleet. Notably, not all available capacity necessarily comes online during periods of scarcity — whether due to maintenance, economic considerations, or other reasons. That amplifies price spikes rather than cushioning them. Why this matters to me as a logistics and energy professional In the chemical industry and in energy-intensive logistics operations, electricity has long stopped being a minor cost item — it's become a strategic factor. Companies that source their power through dynamic tariffs or the spot market feel these price spikes immediately in their cost calculations. Those who instead procure early through the forward market buy themselves planning certainty — but now pay a noticeably higher price for it too, because the market has already priced in the risks. To me, this once again shows how closely the energy transition, security of supply, and economic competitiveness are intertwined. Volatility isn't a temporary phenomenon that will simply resolve itself with the next expansion step in wind and solar — quite the opposite: the more weather-dependent generation enters the system, the more important flexible demand-management solutions, sufficient firm capacity for Dunkelflaute periods, and a market design that sets the right incentives even during scarcity become. What this means for consumers and businesses If your power contract is due to expire in the foreseeable future, it's worth taking a close look at current tariff offers — and weighing whether locking in a longer price guarantee now makes sense before forward prices climb further. For companies with high energy consumption, my view is this: a forward-looking, staggered procurement strategy protects better against price swings than hoping for a cheap day on the spot market. The alarm bells on the power exchange are, in that sense, less a short-term disturbance and more a clear signal: the transformation of our energy system is far from complete — and the bill for it is currently being rewritten. — Transition Files